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Policy thresholds and goal conflict in agribusiness-led contract farming","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1964914","Introduction Under yield uncertainty and agribusiness-led contract farming, government intervention is important for sustaining agricultural production and supporting farmer profit. Yet production-side planting subsidies and demand-side brand-building policies operate through different mechanisms, leaving their relative advantages and applicable conditions unclear. This study examines how the government should choose between the two policies and how firm social responsibility shapes their relative performance. Methods We develop a sequential game involving a government, an agribusiness firm, and a farmer under stochastic yield. The firm's objective incorporates concern for farmer profit. Equilibrium decisions are derived by backward induction, and the policies are compared in terms of social welfare and farmer profit. Numerical analysis illustrates the analytical results. Results The planting subsidy policy directly strengthens the farmer's production incentive, whereas the brand-building policy expands market demand and induces the firm to offer a higher procurement price. The benefits of brand building depend critically on its cost-effectiveness. We identify two endogenous thresholds: a social-welfare threshold and a farmer-profit threshold, with the former strictly lower than the latter. As brand-building cost-effectiveness increases, policy preference shifts through three regions: planting-subsidy dominance, goal conflict, and brand-building dominance. In the intermediate region, brand building generates higher social welfare, while the farmer remains better off under planting subsidies. Yield risk, price sensitivity, and planting costs widen the goal-conflict region, whereas higher expected yield and stronger firm social responsibility narrow it. Market size affects absolute outcomes but does not change the relative policy ranking. Discussion These findings extend the agricultural-policy literature from the design of production subsidies to the choice between production-side and demand-side interventions. They show that improvements in aggregate welfare do not necessarily translate into greater benefits for farmers.","引言 在产量不确定性和农业企业主导的订单农业背景下，政府干预对于维持农业生产和支持农民利润至关重要。然而，生产端的种植补贴与需求端的品牌建设政策通过不同机制发挥作用，其相对优势和适用条件尚不明确。本研究考察政府应如何在两种政策之间进行选择，以及企业社会责任如何影响二者的相对表现。方法 我们构建了一个包含政府、农业企业和农户的序贯博弈模型，其中产量具有随机性。企业的目标函数中纳入了对农民利润的关注。通过逆向归纳法求解均衡决策，并从社会福利和农民利润两个维度对政策进行比较。数值分析用于验证解析结果。结果 种植补贴政策直接强化了农户的生产激励，而品牌建设政策则扩大了市场需求并促使企业提供更高的收购价格。品牌建设的收益关键取决于其成本效益。我们识别出两个内生阈值：社会福利阈值和农民利润阈值，且前者严格低于后者。随着品牌建设成本效益的提高，政策偏好依次经历三个阶段：种植补贴占优、目标冲突和品牌建设占优。在中间区域，品牌建设带来更高的社会福利，而农户在种植补贴下境况更好。产量风险、价格敏感性和种植成本会扩大目标冲突区域，而更高的预期产量和更强的企业社会责任则会缩小该区域。市场规模影响绝对结果，但不改变政策的相对排序。讨论 这些发现将农业政策文献从生产补贴的设计拓展至生产端与需求端干预之间的选择。研究表明，总体福利的改善并不必然转化为农民收益的增加。","Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems","2026-10-07T00:00:00Z","论文",false,77,{"impact":584,"substance":321,"depth":361,"authority":585,"freshness":173,"relevant":455,"comment":586},16,13,"以序贯博弈模型揭示生产端补贴与需求端品牌建设之间的社会福利与农户利润目标冲突，为农业政策选择提供新结论，学术增量明确但属理论模型研究，公共影响有限。",[588],{"name":578,"url":575},[590,591,592,593,594],"品牌建设","农业政策","订单农业","农业补贴","农户收益",{"code":542,"slug":543,"name":544,"path":545,"parent_code":534},[],{"status":598,"locked":581,"version":4,"method":599,"evidence":600},"classified","rules",{"candidates":601,"agricultural_evidence":604},[602,608,612,616],{"code":542,"score":603,"supported":604,"title":605,"abstract":606,"tags":607},3,true,[],[591],[],{"code":472,"score":69,"supported":581,"title":609,"abstract":610,"tags":611},[],[],[590,592],{"code":503,"score":455,"supported":581,"title":613,"abstract":614,"tags":615},[],[],[593],{"code":511,"score":455,"supported":581,"title":617,"abstract":618,"tags":619},[],[],[592],[621,622],"订单农业 种植补贴 品牌建设","农业政策 农业补贴 农户收益 品牌建设","订单农业种植补贴品牌建设-4413","10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1964914",{"doi":624,"openalex_id":626,"authors":627,"venue":578,"cited_by_count":424,"oa_url":634,"card":635,"direction":639,"ingested_from":641},"W7220848356",[628,631],{"name":629,"orcid":630},"Lidong Chen","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-6228-1536",{"name":632,"orcid":633},"Zigong Cai","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0001-8551-9159","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Fjournals\u002Fsustainable-food-systems\u002Farticles\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1964914\u002Fpdf",{"tldr":636,"method":637,"finding":638,"direction":639,"opportunity":640},"构建政府、农企与农户序贯博弈，比较种植补贴与品牌建设政策并识别目标冲突阈值。","随机产量下序贯博弈、逆向归纳与数值分析。","品牌建设成本效益提高使政策偏好经历补贴主导、目标冲突、品牌主导三阶段，福利与农户利润阈值不同。","农业人工智能与决策模型","可结合实证数据检验阈值，并设计兼顾社会福利与农户利润的混合政策机制。","openalex","2026-10-08T23:30:07.437474Z",{"id":644,"title":645,"url":646,"summary":647,"summary_zh":648,"content":11,"source_name":578,"source_url":646,"published_at":649,"category":580,"cover_url":11,"hotness":385,"is_selected":581,"score":650,"score_detail":651,"sources":654,"tags":656,"primary_topic":662,"secondary_topics":663,"classification":664,"search_phrases":691,"slug":694,"view_count":603,"doi":695,"paper":696,"created_at":712},4049,"Transient prosperity or durable resilience: how place-based specialty agricultural policy shapes rural household welfare in China","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1938168","Background Improving rural household welfare is central to global sustainable development. China’s place-based Specialty Agricultural Product Advantageous Zones (SAZ) policy promotes specialized agricultural clusters. Nevertheless, existing literature mostly evaluates policy effects based on monetary income, with limited evidence on whether such policy merely delivers short-run transient prosperity or builds long-run durable household development resilience. This study fills this gap by disentangling the policy’s dual welfare outcomes and underlying factor‑reallocation mechanisms Methods Drawing on 2013‑2021 matched panel data combining the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) micro‑household data and county-level socioeconomic statistics, this paper adopts a multi-period difference‑in‑differences (DID) framework to estimate SAZ impacts on two welfare metrics: multidimensional household income quality (capturing transient prosperity) and model-derived household development resilience (measuring durable resilience). Mediation analysis is further applied to test three transmission pathways: agricultural land intensification, employment structure transformation, and production technology upgrading. Parallel trend tests, placebo permutation, heterogeneous treatment effect diagnostics, threshold changing robustness checks, and instrumental‑variable estimation are implemented to establish causal validity. Results SAZ construction improves household income quality in the short run to generate transient prosperity, and enhances long-term development resilience to build durable resilience. This is mainly attributed to three complementary transmission channels: agricultural land intensification, employment structure transformation, and production technology upgrading. Among them, employment structure transformation serves as the dominant pathway, particularly for long-term development resilience, while production technology upgrading and agricultural land intensification play reinforcing roles. Heterogeneity analysis shows that households in counties with stronger agricultural foundations obtain larger welfare gains, and this advantage is especially pronounced for durable resilience. Across SAZ product categories, all five types significantly raise short-term income quality, but the gains in development resilience are insignificant for aquaculture zones. Across household types, transient prosperity gains are broadly comparable regardless of income structure, while durable resilience gains are concentrated among agriculture-dominated households. Conclusion Place-based specialty-agricultural policy can achieve not only immediate income‑driven prosperity but also durable livelihood resilience via land, labor, and technology factor reallocation. To maximize policy returns, local governments should reform SAZ performance appraisal to incorporate resilience-related indicators, prioritize employment structure upgrading, and implement differentiated support for lagging counties, specific SAZ product categories, and heterogeneous household groups. The findings offer replicable practical references for developing economies pursuing balanced short-run welfare improvement and long-term resilient rural livelihoods.","背景 改善农村家庭福利是全球可持续发展的核心议题。中国实施的优势特色农产品优势区（SAZ）政策旨在推动专业化农业集群发展。然而，现有文献多基于货币收入评估政策效果，关于该政策究竟仅带来短期暂时繁荣，还是能够构建长期持久的家庭发展韧性，尚缺乏充分证据。本研究通过区分该政策的双重福利效应及其背后的要素再配置机制，填补了这一空白。方法 基于2013—2021年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）微观家庭数据与县级社会经济统计数据匹配的面板数据，本文采用多期双重差分（DID）框架，估计SAZ对两项福利指标的影响：多维家庭收入质量（反映暂时繁荣）和模型推导的家庭发展韧性（衡量持久韧性）。进一步运用中介分析检验三条传导路径：农业土地集约化、就业结构转型和生产技术升级。通过平行趋势检验、安慰剂置换检验、异质性处理效应诊断、阈值变化稳健性检验和工具变量估计，以确保因果推断的有效性。结果 SAZ建设在短期内提升家庭收入质量，产生暂时繁荣，并增强长期发展韧性，构建持久韧性。这主要归因于三条互补的传导渠道：农业土地集约化、就业结构转型和生产技术升级。其中，就业结构转型是主导路径，尤其在长期发展韧性方面作用突出，而生产技术升级和农业土地集约化则发挥强化作用。异质性分析表明，农业基础较强县的家庭获得更大的福利增益，且这一优势在持久韧性方面尤为显著。在SAZ产品类别中，五类产品均显著提高短期收入质量，但水产养殖区的发","2026-10-02T00:00:00Z",81,{"impact":361,"substance":321,"depth":652,"authority":345,"freshness":173,"relevant":455,"comment":653},19,"基于CHFS微观面板数据评估特色农产品优势区政策对农户短期增收与长期韧性的双重效应，方法严谨、结论有政策参考价值，值得进入每日精选。",[655],{"name":578,"url":646},[657,658,659,660,661],"乡村振兴","特色农业","农业经济","产业政策","农户福祉",{"code":542,"slug":543,"name":544,"path":545,"parent_code":534},[],{"status":598,"locked":581,"version":4,"method":599,"evidence":665},{"candidates":666,"agricultural_evidence":604},[667,672,678,683,687],{"code":542,"score":524,"supported":604,"title":668,"abstract":670,"tags":671},[669],"agricultural policy",[669],[],{"code":388,"score":673,"supported":604,"title":674,"abstract":675,"tags":677},6,[],[676,389],"水产",[],{"code":64,"score":603,"supported":604,"title":679,"abstract":680,"tags":682},[],[681],"因果推断",[],{"code":511,"score":69,"supported":581,"title":684,"abstract":685,"tags":686},[],[],[660,658],{"code":480,"score":455,"supported":581,"title":688,"abstract":689,"tags":690},[],[],[657],[692,693],"CHFS 农户发展韧性","乡村振兴 产业政策 农业经济 农户福祉","CHFS农户发展韧性-4049","10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1938168",{"doi":695,"openalex_id":697,"authors":698,"venue":578,"cited_by_count":424,"oa_url":705,"card":706,"direction":710,"ingested_from":641},"W7215929771",[699,701,703],{"name":700,"orcid":11},"Zhaohua Zhang",{"name":702,"orcid":11},"Zhiyou Shi",{"name":704,"orcid":11},"Shengli Shi","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Fjournals\u002Fsustainable-food-systems\u002Farticles\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1938168\u002Fpdf",{"tldr":707,"method":708,"finding":709,"direction":710,"opportunity":711},"评估中国特色农产品优势区政策对农户收入质量与发展韧性的双重影响及机制。","基于CHFS与县级面板数据，采用多期DID与中介分析检验三条路径。","政策既带来短期收入质量提升，也增强长期发展韧性，就业结构转型为主导路径。","数字乡村与农业信息化","可探究数字技术如何赋能就业结构转型与生产升级，以强化政策长期韧性效应。","2026-10-03T23:30:07.863943Z",{"id":714,"title":715,"url":716,"summary":717,"summary_zh":11,"content":11,"source_name":718,"source_url":11,"published_at":719,"category":720,"cover_url":11,"hotness":385,"is_selected":604,"score":101,"score_detail":721,"sources":725,"tags":727,"primary_topic":732,"secondary_topics":733,"classification":734,"search_phrases":750,"slug":753,"view_count":673,"doi":11,"paper":11,"created_at":754},2548,"人民日报 2026年9月10日 02版 政策解读·问答 如何引导更多资金流向三农领域","https:\u002F\u002Fcpc.people.com.cn\u002FBIG5\u002Fn1\u002F2026\u002F0910\u002Fc64387-40795954.html","人民日报记者郁静娴、朱隽专访农业农村部有关负责人。围绕健全多元投入格局，方案从财政、债券、信贷、保险、民间投资、农村集体资产等6个方面进行部署；强化价格、补贴、保险等政策支持和协同。","人民日报 2026-09-10","2026-09-09T18:00:00Z","政策",{"impact":722,"substance":321,"depth":361,"authority":723,"freshness":673,"relevant":455,"comment":724},27,15,"央媒专访农业农村部负责人，系统解读财政、债券、信贷、保险、民间投资与集体资产六方面多元投入部署，政策条款与信源权威性俱佳，值得进入每日精选。",[726],{"name":718,"url":716},[657,728,729,730,731],"农业保险","农村金融","三农投入","民间投资",{"code":542,"slug":543,"name":544,"path":545,"parent_code":534},[],{"status":598,"locked":581,"version":4,"method":599,"evidence":735},{"candidates":736,"agricultural_evidence":604},[737,742,746],{"code":542,"score":173,"supported":604,"title":738,"abstract":740,"tags":741},[739],"政策解读",[],[],{"code":503,"score":69,"supported":581,"title":743,"abstract":744,"tags":745},[],[],[728,729],{"code":480,"score":455,"supported":581,"title":747,"abstract":748,"tags":749},[],[],[657],[751,752],"三农投入 乡村振兴 农业保险 农村金融","三农投入 乡村振兴","三农投入乡村振兴农业保险农村金融-2548","2026-09-16T00:03:44.736994Z",{"id":756,"title":757,"url":758,"summary":759,"summary_zh":11,"content":11,"source_name":760,"source_url":11,"published_at":761,"category":580,"cover_url":11,"hotness":385,"is_selected":581,"score":762,"score_detail":763,"sources":765,"tags":767,"primary_topic":772,"secondary_topics":773,"classification":775,"search_phrases":786,"slug":789,"view_count":603,"doi":11,"paper":790,"created_at":798},1874,"高群教授团队：中国智慧农业政策演进特征与优化策略——基于工具-主题-目标三维框架（《智慧农业(中英文)》2026年第3期）","https:\u002F\u002Fcj.sina.com.cn\u002Farticle\u002Fnorm_detail?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffinance.sina.com.cn%2Fwm%2F2026-09-03%2Fdoc-iniqqfvs1923424.shtml","该研究基于政策工具理论，构建工具-主题-目标三维分析框架，以2013—2025年240份智慧农业中央政策文本为研究对象，运用潜在狄利克雷分配主题模型及内容分析法；中国智慧农业政策时序演进趋势显著，分为政策探索期(2013—2015年)、试点示范期(2016—2018年)、战略推进期(2019—2023年)、全面深化期(2024年至今)4个阶段。DOI: 10.12133\u002Fj.smartag.SA202603016。","《智慧农业(中英文)》2026, 8(3): 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