[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"item-2410":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"url":6,"summary":7,"summary_zh":8,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":6,"published_at":11,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":15,"score_detail":16,"sources":24,"tags":26,"view_count":32,"doi":33,"paper":34,"created_at":54},2410,"Assessing output adjustment in South Africa's avocado industry","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1931791","Export-oriented perennial horticultural industries are increasingly exposed to macroeconomic shocks, yet there is limited empirical evidence on how exchange rates, financing conditions, production costs, and climatic variability jointly influence long-run production adjustment in emerging economies. This knowledge gap constrains evidence-based policies aimed at strengthening export competitiveness and investment in high-value horticulture. This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of avocado production in South Africa, a capital-intensive export industry closely integrated into global markets. Annual data for 1991–2024 are analyzed using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) error-correction framework to estimate long-run relationships and short-run adjustment dynamics between avocado production and key macroeconomic variables. The results indicate a stable long-run equilibrium in which exchange-rate movements are the dominant driver of production, highlighting the importance of external competitiveness in export horticulture. In the short run, production adjusts primarily through changes in fertilizer price pressures and financing conditions, while rainfall variability and consumer inflation exert limited influence, reflecting widespread irrigation and weak dependence on domestic demand. The estimated error-correction mechanism indicates relatively rapid adjustment following macroeconomic shocks. These findings suggest that production in export-oriented perennial horticulture responds more strongly to trade competitiveness and production costs than to climatic variability or domestic price conditions. The findings underscore the importance of exchange-rate stability, efficient input markets, and access to specialized agricultural finance in sustaining the competitiveness of high-value horticultural exports in emerging economies. The results should be interpreted in light of the use of aggregate annual industry-level data, which do not capture regional or farm-level heterogeneity. Future research should employ farm-level or regional panel data to examine heterogeneous production responses and the role of technological and institutional factors in shaping long-run industry performance.","出口导向型多年生园艺产业日益暴露于宏观经济冲击之下，然而关于汇率、融资条件、生产成本和气候变异性如何共同影响新兴经济体长期生产调整的实证证据仍然有限。这一知识缺口制约了旨在增强出口竞争力和高价值园艺投资的政策制定。本研究考察南非牛油果生产的宏观经济决定因素，该产业属于资本密集型出口产业，与全球市场紧密融合。研究采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）误差修正框架分析1991—2024年的年度数据，以估计牛油果生产与关键宏观经济变量之间的长期关系和短期调整动态。结果表明，存在稳定的长期均衡，其中汇率变动是生产的主导驱动因素，凸显了外部竞争力在出口园艺中的重要性。短期内，生产主要通过化肥价格压力和融资条件的变化进行调整，而降雨变异性和消费者通胀的影响有限，这反映了灌溉的广泛使用以及对国内需求的依赖较弱。估计的误差修正机制表明，宏观经济冲击后调整相对迅速。这些发现表明，出口导向型多年生园艺的生产对贸易竞争力和生产成本的响应强于对气候变异性或国内价格条件的响应。研究结果凸显了汇率稳定、高效投入品市场以及获得专业农业融资对于维持新兴经济体高价值园艺出口竞争力的重要性。由于使用的是行业层面的年度总量数据，无法捕捉区域或农场层面的异质性，因此结果应在此局限下加以解读。未来研究应采用农场层面或区域面板数据，以考察异质性生产响应以及技术和制度因素在塑造产业长期表现中的作用。",null,"Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems","2026-09-13T00:00:00Z","论文",10,false,75,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":19,"authority":20,"freshness":21,"relevant":22,"comment":23},16,21,17,13,8,1,"以南非牛油果产业1991—2024年数据实证汇率、融资与投入成本对出口型园艺生产的长期调整机制，方法规范、结论对新兴经济体高值农产品出口竞争力政策有参考价值，但属境外细分行业研究，国内落地相关性有限。",[25],{"name":10,"url":6},[27,28,29,30,31],"农产品出口","农业金融","牛油果产业","气候风险","南非农业",0,"10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1931791",{"doi":33,"openalex_id":35,"authors":36,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":32,"oa_url":6,"card":47,"direction":51,"ingested_from":53},"W7212447128",[37,40,43,45],{"name":38,"orcid":39},"Biru Gelgo Dube","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-2321-4517",{"name":41,"orcid":42},"Mamakie Lungwana","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-6239-2236",{"name":44,"orcid":9},"Solly Molepo",{"name":46,"orcid":9},"Joseph Kau",{"tldr":48,"method":49,"finding":50,"direction":51,"opportunity":52},"用ARDL模型分析1991–2024年南非牛油果产量与汇率、融资、成本、气候的长期与短期关系。","1991–2024年年度数据，ARDL误差修正模型估计长期均衡与短期调整。","汇率是产量长期主导驱动，短期靠化肥价格与融资条件调整，降雨和通胀影响有限。","农业绿色发展与碳","可延伸至农场或区域面板数据，考察技术与制度因素对出口型园艺产业长期绩效的异质性影响。","openalex","2026-09-14T23:30:06.646726Z"]