[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"item-2747":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"url":6,"summary":7,"summary_zh":8,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":6,"published_at":11,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":15,"score_detail":16,"sources":23,"tags":25,"view_count":31,"doi":32,"paper":33,"created_at":56},2747,"Simulation of the entire process and multi-dimensional sustainability assessment of regional water footprint supply chain using the SCOR-SD-BN coupled framework","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1016\u002Fj.agsy.2026.104984","Context Global water resources face critical challenges such as pollution, over-exploitation, and inequitable distribution. This necessitates the development of scientific frameworks to effectively evaluate the sustainability of water resource management. Objective This study establishes a theoretical framework for the agricultural water footprint supply chain, directly elucidates the transformation mechanisms and sustainable evaluation methods from farmland water use to final products, and constructs a system dynamics model for the agricultural water footprint in Heilongjiang Province. This model simulates dynamic processes, enables real-time evaluation of multidimensional sustainability, and analyzes dominant paths. Methods Drawing on the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model, this study treated water footprint (WF) and water value as equivalent to the supply chain's total cost and total revenue, respectively. It established a WF supply chain transformation mechanism from water consumption to the product side and used a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the entire WF supply chain process in Heilongjiang Province, quantitatively analyzing supply chain structure diversity and disturbance amplification. Based on this, a multidimensional evaluation index system covering economic, environmental, and social dimensions was constructed and, in combination with Bayesian Network (BN), fuzzy logic, and semantic mapping, facilitated multidimensional dynamic evaluation and dominant path identification of regional WF supply chain sustainability. Results and conclusions The research findings demonstrate that (1) From 2000 to 2050, both the total cost and total revenue of Heilongjiang Province's WF supply chain consistently exhibit an initial increase followed by a decrease, with the disturbance amplification effect present across all sectoral WF supply chains. (2) In agriculture, apple and beef cattle supply chains possess the strongest sustainability, while soybean and sheep supply chains display the weakest. In the industry, the food manufacturing sector has the strongest sustainability, while the electric heating and metallurgical sectors are the weakest. (3) The comprehensive sustainability index of the WF Supply Chain pursues a distinctly fluctuating upward trajectory from 2000 to 2025. Under the established scenario, the index is projected to continue rising overall from 2026 to 2050, reaching approximately 0.83 around 2045, entering the high sustainability level, and becoming largely stable by 2050. Environmental improvement stands out as the primary strategy when sustainability is low, while economic factors become the principal constraint when sustainability is high. Significance This research establishes a novel analytical framework and quantitative tool for assessing the sustainability of water resource management. The findings decisively guide the promotion of sustainable utilization and management of regional water resources.","背景 全球水资源面临污染、过度开采和分配不均等严峻挑战，亟需构建科学框架以有效评估水资源管理的可持续性。目的 本研究建立农业水足迹供应链的理论框架，直接阐明从农田用水到最终产品的转化机制与可持续评价方法，并构建黑龙江省农业水足迹的系统动力学模型，模拟动态过程，实现多维可持续性的实时评估，并分析主导路径。方法 借鉴供应链运作参考（SCOR）模型，本研究将水足迹（WF）和水价值分别等同于供应链的总成本和总收益，建立了从水消耗到产品端的WF供应链转化机制，并运用系统动力学（SD）模型模拟黑龙江省整个WF供应链过程，定量分析供应链结构多样性和扰动放大效应。在此基础上，构建涵盖经济、环境和社会维度的多维评价指标体系，并结合贝叶斯网络（BN）、模糊逻辑和语义映射，实现区域WF供应链可持续性的多维动态评价和主导路径识别。结果与结论 研究结果表明：（1）2000年至2050年，黑龙江省WF供应链的总成本和总收益均呈现先增后减的趋势，扰动放大效应存在于所有部门WF供应链中。（2）在农业中，苹果和肉牛供应链的可持续性最强，而大豆和绵羊供应链的可持续性最弱。在工业中，食品制造业的可持续性最强，而电热和冶金部门的可持续性最弱。（3）WF供应链的综合可持续性指数在2000年至2025年间呈现明显的波动上升轨迹。在既定情景下，该指数预计在2026年至2050年间总体继续上升，约在2045年达到约0.83，进入高可持续",null,"Agricultural Systems","2026-09-16T00:00:00Z","论文",10,false,81,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":17,"authority":19,"freshness":20,"relevant":21,"comment":22},18,22,14,9,1,"以SCOR-SD-BN耦合框架模拟黑龙江农业水足迹供应链并做多维可持续评估，方法新颖、数据跨度大，对区域水资源管理有参考价值，但属学术论文，产业落地影响有限。",[24],{"name":10,"url":6},[26,27,28,29,30],"农业供应链","农业水资源","智慧水利","水足迹","可持续评价",0,"10.1016\u002Fj.agsy.2026.104984",{"doi":32,"openalex_id":34,"authors":35,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":31,"oa_url":6,"card":49,"direction":53,"ingested_from":55},"W7213431804",[36,38,41,43,46],{"name":37,"orcid":9},"He Peng",{"name":39,"orcid":40},"Youzhu Zhao","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-2706-8780",{"name":42,"orcid":9},"Meiyun Tao",{"name":44,"orcid":45},"Qiuxiang Jiang","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-5790-2334",{"name":47,"orcid":48},"Zilong Wang","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-3143-0906",{"tldr":50,"method":51,"finding":52,"direction":53,"opportunity":54},"构建SCOR-SD-BN耦合框架，模拟黑龙江农业水足迹供应链并评估多维可持续性。","SCOR模型、系统动力学、贝叶斯网络、模糊逻辑与语义映射。","水足迹供应链成本收益先增后减，苹果和肉牛链可持续性最强，大豆和羊链最弱。","农业绿色发展与碳","可将该框架推广至其他区域或作物，结合实时数据实现动态水足迹可持续性预警。","openalex","2026-09-17T23:30:04.921468Z"]