[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"item-2749":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"url":6,"summary":7,"summary_zh":8,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":6,"published_at":11,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":15,"score_detail":16,"sources":23,"tags":25,"view_count":31,"doi":32,"paper":33,"created_at":53},2749,"Modeling cascading drought effects in a national food supply network using minimum cost flow","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1892770","Droughts increasingly threaten food security, yet assessments often overlook how local agricultural losses cascade through complex supply chains. We developed a spatially explicit network optimization model employing a minimum cost flow algorithm to simulate food distribution within a synthetic national-scale Swedish food supply network (a model network constructed from open geospatial data) of more than 830,000 nodes. To test the system's response to extreme hydro-climatic stress, we applied a severe drought scenario analogous to the conditions experienced in 2018. The model revealed a significant spatial disconnect: while agricultural yield losses were concentrated in southern farming regions, unmet consumer demand emerged predominantly in northern municipalities. Furthermore, network analysis showed that flow reconfiguration under drought stress created new critical bottlenecks, effectively shifting the system's overall vulnerabilities. While these specific geographic results are illustrative of the framework's diagnostic capability rather than empirically verified operational failures, they demonstrate that drought impacts propagate nonlinearly through supply networks. This underscores the critical importance of considering network topology in food security assessments. Ultimately, our approach offers a scalable framework for identifying hidden vulnerabilities and informing resilience strategies in national food supply infrastructures.","干旱日益威胁粮食安全，然而现有评估往往忽视了地方农业损失如何通过复杂供应链逐级传导。我们开发了一个空间显式网络优化模型，采用最小成本流算法，在超过83万个节点的合成全国尺度瑞典食品供应网络（基于开放地理空间数据构建的模型网络）中模拟食品分配。为检验系统对极端水文气候胁迫的响应，我们应用了一个与2018年所经历条件类似的严重干旱情景。模型揭示出显著的空间错位：农业产量损失集中在南部农业区，而未被满足的消费者需求则主要出现在北部市镇。此外，网络分析表明，干旱胁迫下的流量重构形成了新的关键瓶颈，实际上转移了系统的整体脆弱性。虽然这些具体的地理结果更多体现了该框架的诊断能力，而非经验证实的实际运行故障，但它们表明干旱影响会通过供应网络非线性传播。这凸显了在粮食安全评估中考虑网络拓扑结构的关键重要性。最终，我们的方法提供了一个可扩展的框架，用于识别隐藏的脆弱性并为国家食品供应基础设施的韧性策略提供信息。",null,"Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems","2026-09-17T00:00:00Z","论文",10,false,86,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":19,"authority":20,"freshness":13,"relevant":21,"comment":22},22,23,18,13,1,"以83万节点最小成本流网络模型揭示干旱冲击在粮食供应链中的非线性级联与瓶颈转移，方法新颖、结论有政策参考价值，属农业信息化与粮食安全交叉领域的高质量研究。",[24],{"name":10,"url":6},[26,27,28,29,30],"农业遥感","农业供应链","粮食安全","干旱风险","网络优化",0,"10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1892770",{"doi":32,"openalex_id":34,"authors":35,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":31,"oa_url":6,"card":46,"direction":50,"ingested_from":52},"W7213455583",[36,38,41,43],{"name":37,"orcid":9},"Noor Bosman",{"name":39,"orcid":40},"Samuel Jonson Sutanto","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0003-4903-6445",{"name":42,"orcid":9},"Zahra Kalantari",{"name":44,"orcid":45},"Marlon Vieira Passos","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0002-3111-4583",{"tldr":47,"method":48,"finding":49,"direction":50,"opportunity":51},"构建瑞典全国食品供应网络最小成本流模型，模拟干旱下农业损失沿供应链级联传播。","基于开放地理数据构建83万节点网络，用最小成本流算法模拟2018年干旱情景。","南部减产却导致北部需求缺口，干旱使网络瓶颈转移，影响非线性传播。","农业人工智能与决策模型","可结合真实贸易流与多灾种情景，开发动态网络韧性评估与优化决策工具。","openalex","2026-09-17T23:30:07.182055Z"]