[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"item-2762":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"url":6,"summary":7,"summary_zh":8,"content":9,"source_name":10,"source_url":6,"published_at":11,"category":12,"cover_url":9,"hotness":13,"is_selected":14,"score":15,"score_detail":16,"sources":23,"tags":25,"view_count":32,"doi":33,"paper":34,"created_at":57},2762,"Food-supply resilience under policy, market, and biosecurity shocks: a diagnostic of import vulnerability, supplier substitution, and short-run callable capacity in RCEP agri-food networks","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1924874","Introduction Policy, market, and biosecurity shocks test whether regional trade networks can maintain physical food availability when established sourcing channels are disrupted. This narrower dimension of food security is termed food-supply resilience. This study treats the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as a policy-relevant regional supply space and examines whether its agri-food networks contain short-run callable capacity for import-vulnerable economies. The analysis advances the claim that connectivity is not capacity: trade links support resilience only when they connect vulnerable importers to suppliers with callable surplus, stable ties, and usable access. Methods This study constructs 126 commodity-year networks for six agri-food categories over 2001–2021 using CEPII-BACI trade data, with FAOSTAT quantities used as an independent cross-source check. Import vulnerability is measured through supplier dependence, concentration, and tie stability. Supplier substitution is assessed through regional supplier persistence, lower-bound callable surplus, gross-export upper-bound coverage, and shock-specific access conditions. Post-2021 observations are used as descriptive monitoring checks rather than as agreement-effect estimates. Results Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agri-food networks became more connected, but resilience profiles diverged by commodity. Rice was the only distributed-supplier profile. Milk-powder dairy and palm oil combined large regional surplus with exporter cores concentrated around New Zealand and Australia, and Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. Soybean and pork remained weak regional-substitution cases, while selected tropical and subtropical fruit was retained only as a compositional regional-trade profile. China showed a centrality paradox: it became more central where regional alternatives already existed but remained peripheral in soybean and pork, where extra-regional dependence mattered most. Lower-bound and gross-export upper-bound checks confirmed pervasive regional substitution gaps in soybean and pork across eligible importer profiles, not only for China. The Philippines-rice case showed the contrasting profile of an import-vulnerable economy backed by substantial regional surplus. Discussion The shock episodes support the diagnostic. Rice export restrictions, Indonesia’s palm-oil export ban, and the African swine fever pork shock show that regional networks support food-supply resilience only when vulnerable importers are connected to suppliers with callable surplus, stable ties, and usable access. Regional agreements can reduce frictions and improve coordination, but they do not automatically create deployable supply. Food-security governance should therefore monitor commodity-importer vulnerability, callable surplus, gross-export upper bounds, tie persistence, and access readiness rather than treating network connectivity as resilience.","引言 政策、市场和生物安全冲击检验了区域贸易网络在既有采购渠道中断时能否维持实体粮食可获得性。这一较窄维度的粮食安全被称为粮食供应韧性。本研究将《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）视为具有政策相关性的区域供应空间，并考察其农食网络是否对进口脆弱型经济体包含短期可调用能力。分析提出，连通性不等于能力：贸易联系只有在将脆弱进口方连接到拥有可调用盈余、稳定联系和可用准入的供应方时，才能支撑韧性。方法 本研究利用CEPII-BACI贸易数据构建了2001—2021年间六大农食类别的126个商品—年份网络，并使用FAOSTAT数量数据作为独立的跨来源校验。进口脆弱性通过供应方依赖、集中度和联系稳定性来衡量。供应方替代通过区域供应方持续性、下限可调用盈余、总出口上限覆盖率和冲击特定准入条件来评估。2021年后的观察结果被用作描述性监测检查，而非协定效应估计。结果 RCEP农食网络变得更为连通，但韧性特征因商品而异。大米是唯一呈现分布式供应方特征的商品。奶粉乳制品和棕榈油分别将大规模区域盈余与集中在新西兰和澳大利亚、印度尼西亚和马来西亚的出口核心相结合。大豆和猪肉仍是区域替代较弱的案例，而部分热带和亚热带水果仅作为构成性区域贸易特征得以保留。中国表现出中心性悖论：在区域替代品已经存在的地方，中国变得更为中心，但在大豆和猪肉这些域外依赖最为重要的领域，中国仍处于边缘。下限和总出口上限检查证实，在符合条件的进口方特征中，大豆和猪肉普遍存在区域替代缺口，不仅限于中国。菲律宾—大米案例则展示了另一种特征：一个进口脆弱型经济体得到大量区域盈余的支撑。讨论 冲击事件支持了这一诊断。大米出口限制、印度尼西亚棕榈油出口禁令和非洲猪瘟猪肉冲击表明，区域网络支撑粮食供应韧性",null,"Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems","2026-09-16T00:00:00Z","论文",10,false,80,{"impact":17,"substance":18,"depth":17,"authority":19,"freshness":20,"relevant":21,"comment":22},18,22,13,9,1,"基于CEPII-BACI与FAOSTAT构建126个商品-年份网络，提出“连通性不等于可调用产能”的诊断框架，对大豆、猪肉等进口脆弱品类有实质结论，但属学术论文，产业落地影响有限。",[24],{"name":10,"url":6},[26,27,28,29,30,31],"粮食安全","大豆","RCEP","供应链韧性","农产品贸易","猪肉",0,"10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1924874",{"doi":33,"openalex_id":35,"authors":36,"venue":10,"cited_by_count":32,"oa_url":49,"card":50,"direction":54,"ingested_from":56},"W7213434130",[37,39,42,44,46],{"name":38,"orcid":9},"Guo Ru",{"name":40,"orcid":41},"Bolu Wei","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0009-0003-4854-2036",{"name":43,"orcid":9},"Mingrong Zeng",{"name":45,"orcid":9},"Pan Liu",{"name":47,"orcid":48},"Bixiang Shi","https:\u002F\u002Forcid.org\u002F0000-0003-2034-1710","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.frontiersin.org\u002Fjournals\u002Fsustainable-food-systems\u002Farticles\u002F10.3389\u002Ffsufs.2026.1924874\u002Fpdf",{"tldr":51,"method":52,"finding":53,"direction":54,"opportunity":55},"基于RCEP农食贸易网络，诊断进口脆弱性、供应商替代与短期可调用产能。","用CEPII-BACI 2001–2021年126个商品-年份网络，FAOSTA","RCEP连通性增强但韧性分化，大豆和猪肉普遍存在区域替代缺口。","农业人工智能与决策模型","可构建可调用剩余与准入条件的动态预警模型，识别替代缺口商品。","openalex","2026-09-17T23:30:08.362367Z"]