Researchers have identified a potentially massive gap between plant breeding innovation and on-farm adoption, raising questions about how the seed industry can get improved genetics into farmers’ hands.

Farmers spend heavily on equipment, precision agriculture and crop protection to improve productivity. But what about the genetics inside their seed?

Despite decades of plant breeding advances, some of Western Canada’s most popular crop varieties are surprisingly old. New University of Saskatchewan research suggests that taking a fresh look at those choices could improve your farm profitability.

Agricultural economists Nicholas Tyack and Anissa Collishaw, along with Kim Sanderson and Vitaliia Mishchenko, estimate Saskatchewan farmers alone potentially missed out on $344 million in gross revenue in 2024 by not growing the highest-yielding varieties for their regions.

“I was seeing all this fantastic plant breeding innovation going on and new variety development,” Tyack says. “Then I started looking at some of the adoption data, and I found that the most popular yellow pea and red lentil varieties are from the 2000s, when I was in high school.”

Collishaw was surprised by how little research has examined variety adoption in North America compared with developing countries, where financial and resource constraints often explain slower adoption.

“Even in a context like Saskatchewan or Manitoba, Alberta, where a lot of those constraints don’t bind, you still see the same kind of question of why people aren’t adopting,” she says. “I think there’s something more fundamental about how people are making decisions that we need to get to the root of.”

What Could Better Genetics Be Worth?

The researchers examined spring wheat, durum, red lentils and yellow peas, comparing varieties farmers grew with the highest-yielding options recorded in their Saskatchewan crop insurance risk zones. The estimated potential additional gross revenue was approximately $176 million for spring wheat, $110 million for durum, $30 million for yellow peas and $28 million for red lentils.

Farmers growing established varieties such as AAC Brandon, AAC Transcend, CDC Maxim and CDC Meadow faced estimated average revenue gaps ranging from $31 to $62 per acre compared with the highest-performing varieties in their regions.

These aren’t guaranteed gains. The researchers assumed genetics accounted for 50% of observed yield differences, with management, soil and other factors responsible for the remainder. Even assuming genetics accounted for just 25%, the estimated opportunity remained approximately $172 million.

“First of all, I would say this is a benchmark,” Collishaw says. “I don’t think we’re arguing that this is a true counterfactual. We were just trying to get at what the magnitude might be.”

The analysis doesn’t fully account for harvestability, lodging, yield stability or whether the highest-yielding variety would suit every farm.

“I wouldn’t say that this is money that would have been in someone’s pocket necessarily,” she says. “But it gives us a place to start to say, is this even a problem? And we say, OK, yeah, these are big numbers.”

For Tyack, the opportunity is particularly compelling because variety selection is something farmers can influence despite volatile input costs and grain markets.

Time to Revisit Variety Choices?

Tyack believes genetics deserve the same regular attention farmers give their machinery and other technologies. While growers routinely invest in improved canola seed, they may be less inclined to change varieties in cereals and pulses.

“So for [crops] like pea and lentil, it might make sense to not change their variety every year, but [it could be worth] thinking a bit more about switching the variety more frequently. Take a look at what’s out there.”

Part of the challenge is familiarity. Once a variety performs reliably, farmers understandably stick with it.

Collishaw believes uncertainty also matters. Farmers know the upfront costs of purchasing new seed, but not necessarily how it will perform.

The solution isn’t just encouraging growers to change varieties more often. It’s helping them identify which improved genetics offer the greatest potential for their farms.

Finding the Right Genetics for the Farm

One of the study’s most revealing findings was how widely variety performance differed across Saskatchewan.

An excellent variety in one region wasn’t necessarily the best performer elsewhere. Established varieties such as Maxim and Meadow even remained among the highest-yielding options in certain risk zones.

“There was a huge amount of heterogeneity,” Collishaw says. “In a lot of cases, it’s not clear that there is a top variety. It’s really context-specific, conditions-specific, and it’s a complicated choice to make.”

That makes reliable regional performance information essential to encouraging confident adoption. Some Saskatchewan risk zones lack experimental variety trial sites, limiting the information farmers have about local performance.

“You need to know how it’s going to work in your area, not just how it’s going to work in the province or in your soil type necessarily,” Collishaw says.

She believes more localized, multi-year testing after registration could help farmers identify promising varieties with greater confidence.

And it’s not just about yield. Improved disease resistance, standability and other agronomic traits can deliver important advantages, particularly where Fusarium head blight, wheat midge, sawfly or root rot pose challenges.

Start Small, Learn More

For farmers interested in newer genetics, the researchers suggest a practical approach: experiment before making a wholesale change. Planting a quarter section or half a quarter section to a promising variety allows growers to compare its performance with their established choice under their own growing conditions.

Collishaw and Tyack are now working with Richard Gray on follow-up research examining barriers to variety adoption. Supported through Saskatchewan’s Agricultural Development Fund process by the Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission and seed grower organizations, the project will survey wheat producers and certified seed growers. The goal is to understand what prevents experimentation and how to make testing improved varieties easier.

What Could the Next Variety Deliver?

Improved adoption could also strengthen the research system itself. Those funds could support future crop research and plant breeding, creating further opportunities for productivity gains. Tyack believes the returns from breeding investments are already substantial, but their full value depends on improved genetics reaching farms.

For farmers, the message is straightforward: plant breeding hasn’t stood still, and newer varieties may offer meaningful opportunities to improve returns. Regularly reviewing variety choices, studying local performance data and testing promising genetics on a small acreage can help uncover those opportunities without taking unnecessary risks. The next improvement in farm productivity might not require new equipment or major management changes. It could begin with the genetics going into the ground.

If you are interested in Tyack and Collishaw’s research, please feel free to contact them at nicholas.tyack@usask.ca or anissa.collishaw@usask.ca. The finalized research note summarizing their initial work can be found here.