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#农业投入碳排放

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论文Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems一手来源

Low-carbon city pilot policy, carbon emission reduction effect of agricultural inputs, and transmission pathways: evidence from a quasi-natural experiment at the prefecture level in China based on multi-period DID

Introduction Low-carbon city pilot policies constitute an important institutional practice for advancing the green and low-carbon transition of agriculture and achieving the “Dual-Carbon” goals. Scientific assessment of the agricultural emission-reduction effects of this policy is critical for land and food security. Methods Based on prefecture-level panel data of China spanning 2005–2024, this paper adopts a multi-period staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to systematically examine the impacts of low-carbon city pilot policies on carbon emissions associated with agricultural inputs, and provides associational evidence on the transmission mechanisms. Given that the conventional two-way fixed-effect multi-period DID may yield potential bias under strong heterogeneity, this study further employs the Callaway-Sant’Anna staggered DID (CS-DID) to estimate the dynamic treatment effects for different cohorts. Multiple robustness strategies including PSM and placebo tests are also applied to validate regression results and improve the credibility of causal inference. Results The study finds that low-carbon city pilot policies significantly reduce regional Agricultural input-related carbon emissions mainly through three pathways: optimizing agricultural factor allocation, forcing the low-carbon transformation of agricultural industrial structure, and improving agricultural energy-use efficiency. Heterogeneity exists in policy effects: western cities achieve the strongest emission-reduction outcomes, provincial-capital cities show substantially stronger carbon-mitigation effects than ordinary prefecture-level cities (significant only at the 10% level in the heterogeneity test), and cities included in the pilot program at an earlier stage deliver greater carbon-reduction efforts for agriculture. Discussion This paper effectively identifies the net agricultural emission reduction effect of the progressive low-carbon policy, supplements empirical evidence on the governance of agricultural non-point source carbon emissions by low-carbon policies, and provides empirical support and decision-making references by region and city administrative level for the national low-carbon transformation of agriculture and the optimization and implementation of differentiated low-carbon policies.

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该研究用CS-DID校正传统双向固定效应在多期DID下的异质性偏误,发现减排效应在西部城市、省会城市和早期试点城市更强,可为差异化低碳政策提供依据,但结论基于地级市层面关联证据。

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论文农业现代化研究 2026, Vol.47 (XIE Tingting, LU Kun, WANG Hong)

Digital rural construction, cultivation of new forms of rural agriculture, and carbon emissions in county-level agriculture

新疆财经大学XIE Tingting、LU Kun、WANG Hong在《农业现代化研究》发表数字乡村建设与县域农业碳排放的实证研究,基于2007-2024年中国县级平衡面板数据,构建交错双重差分模型,实证检验数字乡村建设对县域农业碳排放的影响及其作用机制。核心发现:第一,数字乡村建设显著降低了县域农业碳排放,该结论经一系列稳健性与内生性检验后依旧成立;第二,机制分析揭示数字乡村建设通过培育农业新质生产力发挥碳减排效应;第三,扩展分析显示该减排效应存在跨地市边界外溢但受省级边界约束,且对保障粮食产量有正向作用;第四,异质性分析显示该影响在粮食主产区、农业机械化水平较低地区、耕地资源禀赋较弱县更为显著。研究建议进一步释放数字乡村建设碳减排潜力,因地制宜推进县域农业绿色低碳转型。

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论文Nature Food一手来源

Divergent nitrous oxide accounting can distort crop carbon intensity scores and agricultural trade

比较不同氧化亚氮核算方法对作物碳强度评分及农产品贸易的影响。

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该研究提示:采用不同氧化亚氮排放估算框架会系统性改变作物碳强度评分,进而影响以碳强度为依据的贸易规则与减排激励设计。

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