From traditional production to low-carbon transformation: the impact of the digital economy on agricultural carbon emissions

Introduction The rapid development of the digital economy is reshaping traditional agricultural production models, providing new opportunities for low-carbon agricultural transformation. However, the mechanisms through which the digital economy affects agricultural carbon emissions remain underexplored. Methods Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces during 2011–2021, this study employs a fixed-effects model, the SYS-GMM model, and a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to systematically examine the impact of DE on agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) from both local mitigation and spatial spillover perspectives. Results DE significantly reduces ACE within the region, with agricultural technological innovation and improvements in agricultural total factor productivity serving as important transmission mechanisms through which the emission reduction is achieved. Furthermore, the development of DE also exerts a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in neighboring regions, thereby promoting coordinated regional emission reduction. Moreover, the carbon reduction effect exhibits significant regional heterogeneity, with stronger total effects observed in eastern and central regions as well as in areas with higher levels of large-scale agricultural operation. Discussion This study reveals the dual role of DE in facilitating local emission reduction and regional low-carbon coordination, thereby extending the research perspective on the relationship between DE and agricultural lowcarbon transformation. The findings also provide important policy implications for promoting green and low-carbon agricultural development and strengthening regional collaborative governance.