中国农业新质生产力与绿色发展绩效的耦合协调度研究

1. Introduction

Developing agricultural new quality productive forces is an important pathway for shifting the drivers of agricultural development from conventional factor inputs toward scientific and technological innovation and optimized factor allocation, thereby improving the quality of agricultural development. Compared with agriculturally advanced countries, China still has considerable scope to improve agricultural labor productivity, the allocation of scientific and technological resources, and the commercialization of agricultural research outputs. Jiang [1] estimated that, in 2020, agricultural labor productivity in the United States, Canada, and Israel was approximately 17.3, 19.8, and 25 times that of China, respectively. Meanwhile, increasingly stringent constraints on cultivated land, water resources, and the ecological environment have reduced the marginal returns of the conventional agricultural growth model, which relies primarily on expanding land, labor, machinery, and chemical inputs. A shift in development momentum through technological innovation, the reorganization of production factors, and changes in production modes is therefore urgently needed. The application of emerging technologies, including biological breeding, intelligent agricultural machinery, and artificial intelligence, has created new conditions for restructuring agricultural production functions and upgrading the form of agricultural productive forces, while drawing greater attention to the coordination between the upgrading of agricultural productive forces and resource–environmental performance.

Agricultural new quality productive forces refer to an advanced form of agricultural productive forces led by agricultural scientific and technological innovation, grounded in improvements in worker quality, the modernization of the means of labor, and the optimization of the objects of labor, and formed through the reorganization of production factors and changes in production modes. They are characterized by high technology intensity, high efficiency, high quality, and greenness [2]. Their “new quality” lies primarily in changes in factor quality, technological forms, and allocation patterns, rather than in a rejection of the basic components of conventional agricultural productive forces. Xi [3] noted that green development is the defining feature of high-quality development and that new quality productive forces are inherently green productive forces, indicating an intrinsic consistency in the value orientation of the upgrading of productive forces and green development. Agricultural green development, in turn, emphasizes improving resource-use efficiency and reducing environmental burdens while maintaining agricultural output. The two concepts reflect the transformation of agricultural production modes from the perspectives of factor upgrading and resource–environmental performance improvement, respectively; however, their development levels and rates of evolution are not necessarily synchronized.

In recent years, China has made overall progress in agricultural green development. The composite agricultural green development index reported in the China Agricultural Green Development Report 2024 [4] indicates that the national level of agricultural green development in 2023 was higher than both the previous year and 2015. Nevertheless, China’s agricultural green transition still faces practical constraints, including relatively low input-use efficiency. Data released by the Department of Science, Technology and Education of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [5] show that, in 2020, the fertilizer- and pesticide-use efficiencies of China’s three major grain crops were 40.2% and 40.6%, respectively. These indicators represent the shares of applied fertilizer nutrients absorbed by crops in the current season and of pesticides effectively used against target pests. Thus, although agricultural output has continued to grow, substantial room remains to improve resource-use efficiency and control environmental burdens. Whether the upgrading of agricultural productive forces can remain synchronized with improvements in resource–environmental performance has therefore become an important issue in transforming the agricultural development mode.

Existing studies have examined the relationship between ANQPF and agricultural green development, but the coordination differences among the constituent dimensions of productive forces and the dynamic evolution of coordination states have not yet been systematically investigated. Because agricultural green development encompasses economic growth, resource use, ecological protection, social welfare, and governance institutions, this study does not construct a composite measure of agricultural green development in the broad sense. Instead, it focuses on the resource–environmental performance dimension and uses agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) under resource and environmental constraints to represent AGDP. Against this background, the objective of this study is to characterize the temporal evolution, dimension-specific coordination, and state-transition patterns between ANQPF and AGDP across Chinese provinces. Specifically, using data for 30 Chinese provincial-level regions from 2013 to 2023, this study addresses three questions: (1) What annual evolutionary patterns characterize ANQPF and AGDP? (2) How does the coordination between AGDP and ANQPF as a whole, as well as its three constituent dimensions—new-quality means of labor, new-quality labor force, and new-quality objects of labor—differ? (3) How persistent are different coordination states, and in which directions do they transition?

2. Literature Review

Research on agricultural green development has focused mainly on its conceptual connotation, influencing factors, and measurement methods. Existing studies generally define agricultural green development as the coordinated pursuit of agricultural economic growth, resource conservation, and ecological and environmental protection while ensuring an effective supply of agricultural products [6]. Related research has further examined the determinants of agricultural green development from the perspectives of scientific and technological innovation, digital transformation, industrial restructuring, land-factor allocation, and agricultural socialized services, suggesting that regional resource endowments, technological foundations, and institutional conditions shape the effectiveness of the green transition [7]. In terms of measurement, two principal approaches are used: composite indicator evaluation and green total factor productivity. The former captures the multidimensional objectives of agricultural green development, whereas the latter incorporates resource inputs, desirable outputs, and undesirable outputs into a unified production frontier and focuses on input–output performance under resource and environmental constraints [8,9,10]. Because this study examines the coordination between the upgrading of productive forces and resource–environmental performance, AGTFP is used to represent AGDP, but it is not treated as equivalent to agricultural green development in the broad sense.

Agricultural new quality productive forces are rooted in the Marxist theory of productive forces and represent a contextual development of this theory amid a new round of technological revolution and agricultural modernization. Workers, means of labor, and objects of labor remain the basic components of agricultural productive forces. ANQPF do not alter this fundamental logic; rather, they reflect the upgrading of factor quality, technological forms, and factor combinations under the leadership of scientific and technological innovation [11]. Compared with conventional agricultural productive forces, which depend largely on quantitative expansion of land, labor, machinery, and chemical inputs, ANQPF place greater emphasis on technological innovation, the application of digital technologies, and optimized factor combinations [12]. Existing studies have mainly addressed conceptual definition, functional effects, and level measurement. They generally characterize ANQPF as an advanced form of productive forces led by scientific and technological innovation and formed through qualitative upgrading and optimized combinations of production factors, and they construct evaluation systems either around the three elements of productive forces or around functional dimensions such as technology, digitalization, and greenness [13,14,15,16]. Common measurement methods include the entropy-weight method, entropy-weight TOPSIS, and Markov chains. These studies generally find that ANQPFs in China have increased overall, although substantial regional disparities remain [17].

Research on the relationship between ANQPF and green performance has followed two main analytical approaches: unidirectional effects and system coordination. Econometric studies primarily examine the effects of ANQPF on agricultural green production efficiency, carbon-emission efficiency, and sustainable-development performance, treating technological innovation, digital transformation, industrial upgrading, and factor optimization as potential channels [16,18,19,20]. Other studies adopt a system-coordination perspective to investigate the relationships between new quality productive forces and agricultural green development, between digitalization and greening, and between ANQPF and green grain-production capacity. They generally find that coordination has improved, although regional disparities remain pronounced [21,22,23]. Consistent with these findings, research on sustainable intensification, precision agriculture, digital agriculture, and agricultural innovation systems indicates that technological upgrading can improve resource use and environmental performance, but the extent to which these benefits materialize depends on infrastructure, human capital, service systems, and the institutional environment [24,25,26,27,28,29]. The upgrading of agricultural productive forces and improvements in green performance are therefore not necessarily synchronized.

Overall, the existing literature has three limitations. First, most studies focus on the unidirectional effect of ANQPF on green performance and pay insufficient attention to the synchronization and structural alignment of the two systems. Second, some studies include greening indicators in both ANQPF and agricultural green development assessments, leaving the measurement boundaries between the two systems insufficiently defined. Third, existing coordination studies primarily examine overall levels and spatial disparities, while giving limited attention to coordination differences among the three dimensions—new-quality means of labor, new-quality labor force, and new-quality objects of labor—or to the persistence, upgrading, and decline of coordination states. To address these gaps, this study uses AGTFP to represent AGDP, examines the coupling coordination between AGDP and both ANQPF as a whole and its three constituent dimensions, and applies a Markov chain to analyze the dynamic evolution of coordination states.

The marginal contributions of this study are threefold. First, AGTFP is used to represent AGDP, distinguishing this approach from composite assessments that incorporate economic, social, and ecological dimensions and thereby clarifying the measurement boundaries between ANQPF and AGDP. Second, the analysis extends from overall coordination to the three dimensions of new-quality means of labor, new-quality labor force, and new-quality objects of labor, allowing differences in the alignment between distinct elements of productive forces and AGDP to be compared. Third, in addition to examining coordination levels and spatial distributions, a Markov chain is introduced to identify the persistence, upgrading, and decline of coordination states. The coupling coordination degree reflects the synchronization, alignment, and coordination of the two systems; it is not used to identify the direction of influence or a causal relationship between them.

3. Theoretical Analysis

This study draws on the theory of productive forces, system-coupling theory, and evolutionary and path-dependence theory to examine the relationship between ANQPF and AGDP at three levels: overall coordination, dimension-specific coordination, and state transitions. The purpose is to evaluate the synchronization and structural alignment of the two systems rather than to identify causal relationships among variables. Accordingly, the following theoretical propositions concern coordination states and their evolution and do not presuppose a causal direction.

3.1. Coupling Coordination Between Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces and Agricultural Green Development Performance

System-coupling theory holds that the coordination state between systems depends on the relative alignment of their development levels, evolutionary rates, and internal structures. ANQPF and AGDP are jointly embedded in agricultural production and operation. New-quality means of labor, new-quality labor force, and new-quality objects of labor reflect qualitative upgrading in production conditions, production actors, and production objects, whereas AGDP captures changes in aggregate output under resource and environmental constraints. Changes in technological equipment, digital infrastructure, and human capital occur within the same production system as changes in agriculture-related environmental outputs. The development states of the two systems may therefore correspond, but they are not necessarily synchronized. Differences in technological suitability, resource endowments, and development stages may generate divergence in their levels and rates of change: some regions may accumulate new-quality factors rapidly while AGDP lags, whereas others may exhibit the opposite pattern [13,18,30]. The coupling coordination degree measured in this study is intended to reflect the synchronization and alignment of the two systems rather than to identify causal effects. Accordingly, the following hypothesis is proposed:

Hypothesis 1**(H1).**

ANQPF and AGDP exhibit a general trend of joint improvement, but their growth trajectories are not fully synchronized; consequently, the overall level of coupling coordination increases over time.

3.2. Differentiated Coordination Between the Dimensions of Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces and Agricultural Green Development Performance

The theory of productive forces regards workers, means of labor, and objects of labor as the basic components of productive forces. ANQPF thus represent the qualitative upgrading and recombination of these three components driven by scientific and technological innovation [31]. Because the foundations, evolutionary cycles, and regional dependence of the three dimensions differ, each may form a distinct coordination relationship with AGDP. New-quality means of labor reflect upgrades in technological equipment and digital infrastructure. Although technological renewal is relatively rapid, its diffusion is uneven, and its rate of change may be faster or slower than that of AGDP, producing different alignment states [14,18,25]. The new-quality labor force reflects the accumulation of human capital and skills. Its formation and allocation require longer periods, while the efficiency with which it is transformed into productive outcomes depends on training and extension systems [26,28]; its coordination with AGDP may therefore differ from that of the means-of-labor dimension. New-quality objects of labor reflect changes in how production objects are developed and utilized. They are strongly dependent on resources and location [16,20], and their optimization and value realization exhibit marked path dependence, generating coordination characteristics distinct from those of the other two dimensions. Accordingly, the following hypothesis is proposed:

Hypothesis 2**(H2).**

The coordination levels and evolutionary pathways between AGDP and the three dimensions of ANQPF—new-quality means of labor, new-quality labor force, and new-quality objects of labor—differ.

3.3. Dynamic Evolution of Coupling Coordination States

Evolutionary and path-dependence theory indicates that technologies, knowledge, and institutional rules are cumulative. System transformation evolves incrementally along established trajectories but may stagnate or regress in response to external shocks [32]. Coordination states are built on existing technological and institutional arrangements. Technology diffusion and human-capital development are generally long-term processes, making cross-stage transitions difficult to achieve in the short run. Interdependence between technologies and institutions creates path inertia, and transformation usually occurs through incremental reconfiguration [[27](https