Digital Village Development, Agricultural Modernization, and Rural Resilience in China: Coupling Coordination and Mismatches in Relative Development Positions Across Provinces, 2011–2024

Aligning rural digitalization and agricultural modernization with risk-coping and adaptive capacities is important for sustainable rural development. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2011–2024), we assess coordination and mismatches in relative development positions among digital village development, agricultural modernization, and rural resilience using entropy weighting, coupling coordination analysis, and provincial ranking comparisons. Two-way fixed effects (TWFE) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) examine associations with government, market, and social conditions. All three subsystems improved, but growth rates and provincial rankings differed. The national mean coupling coordination degree increased from 0.336 to 0.545, while the absolute gap between leading and lagging provinces widened. In 2024, five provinces combined relatively high digital village development with relatively low rural resilience, and seven showed the same pattern for agricultural modernization. In the TWFE model, government and market conditions were positively associated with coupling coordination, whereas social conditions showed no statistically significant association. GTWR revealed spatiotemporal variation, with stronger government associations in some central and western provinces and stable market associations. Temporal trends and provincial rankings were robust to weighting choices, whereas discrete coordination categories were sensitive to them. The findings support place-based policies integrating digital and agricultural development with resilience building.